What is "superforecasting"

Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction is a book by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner released in 2015. It details findings from The Good Judgment Project.

A number of people participated in an IARPA tournament that encouraged forecasters to update forecasts in real time. The top performers on the 2,800 tournament were categorized as superforecasters based on their Brier score. The collective Brier score of superforecasters was 0.25, compared with a score of 0.37 for other forecasters. Some discussed superforecasters included Doug Lorch, Bill Flack, and Sanford Sillman (an atmospheric scientist). Superforecasters even "performed" 30 percent better than the average for intelligence community analysts who could read secret data.

When given intelligence tests, superforecasters scored well-above average, but not at the genius level (they scored above 80% of people).