iNEMS (Integrated National Energy Modeling System) is developed by China CEEP (China Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research) independently in 2013. By using the dynamic web technology and database application, CEEP China team posted their original research findings on the iNEMS. iNEMS is able to carry out following simulation and analysis works: Interactions between China’s energy and economy system; Links China and world energy markets; Energy system impacts on environment; Long term economy decisions.
iNEMS includes seven major functions:
China Energy & Environmental Policy Analysis system
Based on the Computable General Equilibrium methods, China Energy & Environmental Policy Analysis system (CEEPA) offers a solid decision-making support for the further reform of China’s energy and environmental policies. CEEPA gathered various major entities of China’s macro economy systems to describe the interactions between them. Most importantly, CEEPA can show the maps in depth for energy (coal, crude oil, natural gas, refined oil, electric power etc.) generation, demand and international trade. CEEPA also includes energy related carbon emissions. Especially, in this system, we make a special consideration for China’s labor market and energy market. CEEPA can provide policy makers a universal solution for diverse energy and environmental policies.
Energy demand forecast system for China
The forecast of energy demand is the fundamentals of the making of national energy strategies. In China, there are great uncertainties in economy and social development. This situation also brings a lot of troubles in forecasting China’s energy demand. With the rapid development of China’s society and economy, the energy demand of China is very difficult to be mapped. It becomes even more difficult to make certain of the long-term energy development. Energy demand forecast becomes more and more important since the oil crisis (1970s). Based on long-term impact factors of energy demand, this system delivered a dynamic animation to show the changes of China’s energy future. The long-term dynamic forecast model of China’s energy demand can provide a specific energy demand data for each year.
Risk forecast system of oil market
VaR（Value-at-Risk）is the most popular tools in valuing the risk. Mathematically, the conception of VaR is the probability distribution quantile of the value of asset, or, the rate of return. Financial organizations and regulatory authorities apply the VaR tools to quantify the risk then to keep enough capital reserve to the risk. In oil market, the risk even higher than normal financial market, and this is the reason why people interested in how to get avoid the risk. In this way, VaR provides a useful tool for oil market risk management, and Risk Forecast System of Oil Market is design based on the features of VaR.
Long-term and Multi-stage Oil Price Forecasting System, LOFS
Violent fluctuation makes great impacts on the whole international society. It becomes very important to indicate the trends of the oil price of international markets. By using the Multi-scale Analysis based on Wavelet methods, CEEP China research team designed the Long-term and Multi-stage Oil Price Forecasting System (LOFS). Lots of applications showed that this system can roughly map the future trends of oil price of the international markets.
Emission Allowance Generator for Emission Reduction, EAGER
Carbon reduction responsibilities of countries is the major points of international climate negotiation. In order to make an objective comparison of various obligation allocation schemes, CEEP China research team designed Emission Allowance Generator for Emission Reduction (EAGER). The results shows that this platform is easy to be used and can provide a user-friendly interface. All schemes can be visually and quantitatively used to show the difference and preference.
Energy & Economic Data Platform, EEDP
Energy economy Data Platform (Energy & Economic Data Platform, EEDP) is independently developed by China Center for Energy and environmental policy research (CEEP China).It aims at serving academic research in colleges and universities and functions as database for research in energy economics. With the purpose of meeting requirement in academic research, it provides a large number of derived data calculated using professional data processing and model calculation method with basic database obtained from national bureau of statistics. It covers a wide range and large scale with rich contents. EEDP database includes five modules containing national accounts data, population, energy, carbon emissions and market price as well as nine sub-databases. It contains about 1.46 million data concerning fields of national economy energy and environment. Detailed introduction are as follows：
National Accounts Modules
The national economic accounting database covers annual and quarterly data of three dimensions including national, regional and industry levels which includes national income and its index, per capita GDP and GDP index, value added index, GDP measured by expenditure approach and its composition as well as indicators of residents' consumption level.
National, provincial and industrial level
First quarter of 2001 -second quarter of 2012
stock of capital
The capital stock database covers the capital stock data of national and 30 provinces and cities. Taking1978 as base year, the data is adjusted using depreciation rate and price index on the basis of annual gross fixed capital formation in the statistical yearbook. In addition, this system also offers capital stock under price levels of various years including 2000, 2005, 2006 and 2010.
National and provincial
The population database system covers annual data of whole populations, men and women, urban and rural, as well as other indicators including birth and mortality rate, natural growth rate.
National and provincial
The energy balance database
The energy balance database includes national and regional converting and standard energy balance sheet since 1990. It distinguish from energy statistical yearbook in that this system can provide the tendency of time series for different energy varieties. Due to inconsistent structure of energy balance, data in energy balance sheets do not have a unified data caliber. In order to meet the needs of the research, our center offers a new combination plan of energy varieties to ensure their comparability in time.
National and provincial
Terminal consumption of industrial sector database
The terminal consumption of industrial sector database includes national terminal consumption energy data in both converting and standard forms for all divisions of industry since 1991.
Non-fossil energy consumption database
The non-fossil energy consumption database is calculated by us using part of energy consumptions data in energy balances plus electricity energy use on national and levels of 30 provinces.
Carbon emission Modules
Carbon emission database
The carbon emission database mainly covers national and regional amount of carbon dioxide emissions, as well as carbon emissions of different energy varieties and industrial divisions, which are mainly calculated under our own framework using data from national and provincial energy balances. Due to inconsistent structure of energy balances before and after 2010, caliber is not unified for carbon emissions data of different energy varieties. In order to meet the requirements of research, our center offers a new combination plan of energy varieties to ensure their comparability in time.
National and provincial
Energy price database
The energy price database includes oil price data for various kinds of spot futures and contract in various oil trading market (totaling 7 markets including WTI, Brent, New York, Hubble) concerning different varieties of oil (totaling 8 varieties including crude oil, gasoline, traditional and unleaded gasoline).The system features the daily data ranging from January 2, 1980 to February 14, 2012.
WTI, Brent, etc.
carbon price database
The carbon price database includes data concerning the futures price of the carbon price of different types of contracts in ICE futures trading market. The system features the daily data ranging from April 22, 2005 to March 2, 2010.